Indian Elections 2009 - Comments

Tuesday 10 March 2009

Congress (UPA) Poised to win in 2009



LokasabhaPredictions as of March 2009

State / UT

Total No Of Seats

Congress

Cong Allies

BJP

BJP Allies

UNPA

Others

Andaman and Nicobar Islands

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Andhra Pradesh

42

28

0

1

0

11

2

Arunachal Pradesh

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

Assam

14

4

0

4

6

0

0

Bihar

40

7

13

8

10

2

0

Chandigarh

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Chhattisgarh

11

5

0

6

0

0

0

Dadra and Nagar Haveli

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Daman and Diu

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Delhi

7

2

0

5

0

0

0

Goa

2

1

0

1

0

0

0

Gujarat

26

12

0

14

0

0

0

Haryana

10

2

2

4

2

0

0

Himachal Pradesh

4

1

0

2

1

0

0

Jammu and Kashmir

6

1

2

0

0

3

0

Jharkhand

14

3

3

3

2

1

0

Karnataka

28

12

0

10

0

6

0

Kerala

20

8

4

0

0

8

0

Lakshadweep

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Madhya Pradesh

29

15

0

13

0

0

1

Maharashtra

48

14

15

7

9

0

0

Manipur

2

1

0

0

0

0

1

Meghalaya

2

1

0

0

0

0

1

Mizoram

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

Nagaland

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

Orissa

21

5

0

6

0

10

0

Pondicherry

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

Punjab

13

6

0

2

5

0

0

Rajasthan

25

8

0

17

0

0

0

Sikkim

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

Tamil Nadu

39

5

12

0

0

22

0

Tripura

2

0

0

0

0

2

0

Uttaranchal

5

2

0

3

0

0

0

Uttar Pradesh

80

7

0

7

6

26

34

West Bengal

42

4

9

0

0

27

2


543

161

63

113

41

119

41


UPA

224







NDA

154







UNPA

119







Others

41






UPA is expected to better its 2004 performances if the alliances it has stiched goes well. Congress on its own can get 15-25 seats more than 2004 Loksabha.

The key states for Congress would be Andhra PRadesh (30 out of 42), MAharasthra (29 out of 45). It may also post a good total in Gujarat and Karnataka contradicting CNN-IBN opinion poll and other polls

The surprise for the congress might come from Rajasthan, where it is bound to lose many seats to BJP. The BJP has quickly turned around Rajasthan in its favour after the defeat in assembly elections.

BJP on the other hand doesn't have a state that might give more than twenty MPs. It might put up good performance in Delhi, Haryana, Goa etc but would have handful of MPs.

It pins hope on two states - Tamil Nadu - a white wash from AIADMK would weaken UPA and Bihar - a good show by JDU/BJP combine

All in all BJP expects congress to lose rather than expecting a win on its own.

UPA, however, will fall short of the majority (273) by forty - fifty seats and that makes things interesting. The biggest question is who will win Uttar Pradesh?

Whover sweeps Uttar Pradesh will be the king maker. Or will it be a Queen from UP?

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2 comments:

  1. Wait and see NDA will be back in power. You are predicting for congress and not shpowing realty

    ReplyDelete
  2. Congress has good rural support. NDA did nothing as an opposition in the last five yeatrs

    ReplyDelete

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